Pattern

Pattern

In the fourteenth century, Ibn Khaldun looked at the world as if it were a pattern endlessly repeating itself. Born in Tunis, in present-day Tunisia, he was many things: a jurist, administrator, and traveler. But above all, he was someone who wanted to understand why societies rise and eventually disappear.

What he observed was surprisingly simple. According to him, almost every great empire moves through a cycle of four stages, spread across four generations. Not a fixed timeline, but a recognizable rhythm. He described this extensively in his famous work Al-Muqaddimah, one of the earliest books to analyze history as an interconnected process.

The first generation builds. These are people who have little and must endure much. They live simply, know scarcity, and depend on one another. No one survives alone. And precisely because of that, something powerful emerges: solidarity. Ibn Khaldun called this asabiyyah — a sense of collective strength and shared belonging. People build not because they can, but because they must.

The second generation continues the work. They grow up with stories of struggle and perseverance. They know where everything came from. Their lives are more comfortable, yet they remain disciplined and cooperative. The empire grows, becomes more stable and prosperous. Its foundations remain strong.

The third generation is born into wealth. For them, prosperity feels natural. The struggle belongs to the past. Comfort becomes the norm. They still work, but with less urgency. What was once necessity slowly becomes choice. Gradually, the bond between people weakens. Togetherness no longer feels essential.

The fourth generation loses something. They inherit everything except the spirit that built it. Luxury has become ordinary, discipline feels burdensome, and social cohesion begins to fade. Inequality grows, distrust increases, and a quiet sense emerges that something is missing.

And it is precisely then that another force appears: nostalgia. A longing for an earlier time, one that seemed simpler, clearer, stronger. People begin looking backward, trying to hold on to what has been lost. At the same time, new groups emerge, often closer in spirit to that first generation: simpler perhaps, but more united. Slowly, the balance of power begins to shift.

History shows this pattern repeatedly. The Roman Empire began small and disciplined, grew into immense wealth, and eventually lost the cohesion that once made it strong. The same can be seen in the Ottoman, Mongol, and Spanish empires. Even today, echoes of this remain visible. In wealthy societies, division often grows alongside prosperity. Doubt increases, and the longing for a stronger past becomes louder often accompanied by calls for a strong leader.

Ibn Khaldun did not see isolated events. He saw a pattern. An empire does not collapse because it begins weak. It collapses because it forgets how it once became strong.

Source: Varagids